Re: Solar panel payback takes 100 years
Posted by: "Arthur C. Noll" arthurnoll@onemain.com arthurcnoll
Date: Wed Sep 10, 2008 4:32 pm ((PDT))
---
Some thoughts came to mind as I read your post, Mike. I don't know your exact situation so some of them may or may not apply to your situation, but I think there is some general food for thought in them.
You may not have any problem with the quality of your PV power right now, but my point is, as I'm sure you know, that the power inverter and the panels will not last forever, and when they go, you, or the next generation, will have a much harder time replacing them, because more of the fossil fuel needed to make such things, will be gone. I'd rather hand on to the next generation, a lifestyle I have reasonable expectation of working for them.
The power company buys your extra power now, but the question over
the short term (in the long term the power company and grid is gone,
as I see it) is whether the amount of power you generate or buy, is
worth the cost of maintaining your line, maintaining transformers,
switches, all of that. You say you are able to see the grid, I
assume that means you can see a major transmission line, otherwise
the statement makes little sense. If one is connected to the grid,
of course you can see it, or the part you are connected to. Being
able to see a major transmission line doesn't say how close your
connection to it is, though. You could still be miles from the
connection. As costs go up, a town of 2,000 people might not be a
revenue source, or generation source big enough to bother with,
especially if a lot of them end up without money making jobs to pay
electric bills, are generating tiny amounts of power by the power
company standards, and possibly generating that power at times that
are awkward, require storage capacity to really make use of it.
What is the economic foundation of this town? How stable is it?
Those are the questions that determine whether it continues to get
service or not, I think.
Being close to a rail line looks good for staying in touch with
cities, which sounds to me like it could be the economic foundation
of your town. But if true, that is a two edged sword, as is having
reliable electricity, and even though there are potential problems,
your proximity to a major line does make your situation more
reliable. Having what others want, can cause you a lot of trouble,
though, and I'm not talking about roving armed gangs at this point.
When you have what a lot of people want in terms of real estate, the
price goes up and so do taxes. People wanting to live a simple, low
money income life, can find themselves forced to either get back on
the treadmill to make money, or move, by forces like these.
The rail line is something like PV panels, made with fossil fuel, can last many years but not forever. Rail lines do require maintenance, do eventually need complete replacement. And like the electricity, a small town is likely to be cut off for lack of paying customers and increased maintenance costs. If a spur line has problems, they might not feel it was worth fixing, if there isn't a spur line they might not stop there anymore. Whichever way it goes, you can lose your rail transportation. That could be good, actually, to be cut off. The problem I see is that as you describe things, you are close to a lot of other people, and if you succeed with the transition town idea, if you successfully work together and build a permaculture, have food to eat when others don't, you become
a target again. Suddenly the train might start stopping again, economic pressure put on you in the form of taxes...
I understand that people generally want to have it all. They don't
want the nasty aspects of the market, they don't want to be wage
slaves on a virtual treadmill, but they want to stay connected
enough to get some of the things the rest, still on the treadmills,
are pumping out as wage slaves, with the aid of exploiting fossil
fuel and exploiting other resources, too. Ancient human instinct
for good food labor EROEI, to have the output of slaves, the output
of exploitation of resources, and assume that nature takes care of
itself on the sustainability issue, turn a blind eye to social
issues, or turn a ruthless eye on it, perfectly willing to be
ruthless about forcing people. You have managed to find a pleasant
niche in this system for the moment. How long it can last is
another question.
I've understood that camels do quite well in large parts of
western Australia. Where camels can live, humans can live off the
camels. Not many, but a few- and you might completely cut the ties.
As you describe things, though, it sounds like there are some strong
psychological cables binding you to your present situation. Might
not be a lot of choice right now, but as things go on and the market
monster weakens, the chance should come to cut free. If you
continue to insist on dancing with the devil, though, continuing to
try to maintain these links to exploitation, or try to cut loose
while in view of masses of people whose minds are still focused on
exploiting whatever they can, I think there could be a serious
price to pay. As long as you have things that others see as
valuable, and you are in range of those people, they will try to
take what you have. In the money game, they will use economic
forces, if money fails them, you can indeed end up with warlords and
armed gangs. I think this blinkered, selfish, instinctive hunger for
the best food-labor EROEI, without concern for the future, without
concern for social wellbeing, will fail in the end, will die out,
but the process of how it dies can easily take you with it.
Arthur Noll
--------------------------------------------------
In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Mike Stasse" <mstasse@...>
wrote:
--- In energyresources@yahoogroups.com, "Arthur C. Noll" <arthurnoll@>
wrote:
> >
> > ---
> > The statement you made that really stuck in my throat, Mike, was
> > that your panels would pay back the embodied energy in them. I
> > don't believe they will ever do that, simply because a lot of
> > that embodied energy was much higher quality energy than what they
> > produce.
>
> Well I have no problem with the quality... It's actually SUPERIOR
> to grid current, as it is formed electronically as a perfect sine
> wave of voltafe never varying much by more than 1 or 2 percent.....
> I know they will never replace the oil and coal that was used to make
> them...
> but oil and coal do not figure in the future I envision anyway...
> >
> >
> > How long will the grid last? <SNIP> The grid in the US was only
> > extended into rural areas with
> > federal subsidies. I imagine similar things happened in
> > Australia
> > and other places. This is likely to reverse. I think it is
likely people like you will stop getting service, or it will be
extremely expensive, something only the very wealthy might pay,
before the grid completely collapses.
>
> Well, I can SEE the grid from here! We're not that rural, living
in a town of ~2000 a mere 20 miles from the coast and half way between
two largish towns. Living 'out west' in Australia is unsustainable and
> WILL disappear, you are right... if for nothing more than lack of
> reliable water.
>
> >
> > I would imagine this problem of expense of long lines, along
with increased cost of transportation, will pull a lot of people out
of rural areas - transportation costs are already pushing people
here away from rural bedroom communities and long commutes.
>
> We don'tcommute, and we are on a rail line..... one of the
criteria for where we would escape...
>
> Greatly increased cost, or unreliable or simply cut off electrical
service will push even more to get out of these places.
>
> If the power went off completely, it would be a bugger, but we
would stay and survive...
>
>
> > People living far
> > away from cities will have to either cut more and more of their
> > ties, find local sources to sustain them, or move closer or back
> > to cities. And ultimately, I think the only answer is to completely
> > cut ties and be far away from cities.
>
> We have started a Transition Town movement here....
>
> Mike.
>
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